My first impression of the video was astonishment, based on my firsthand experience with Hellfire capabilities from my Navy service. If this depicts what it claims to, it’s remarkable - a Hellfire should obliterate its target. I initially suspected some sort of systems test demonstrating advanced capabilities.
Tactical Anomaly: What’s also unusual here is the apparent air-to-air employment of a Hellfire missile. Hellfires are designed for air-to-ground or ground-to-air engagements, not air-to-air intercepts. This tactical employment itself raises questions about the scenario’s authenticity or represents a non-standard operational use.
After discussing this case with Navy friends and colleagues - both recently separated and active duty personnel, plus defense contractors with experience in Hellfire systems, FLIR operations, and specifically Yemen operations during that timeframe - the consensus is clear: if it shows what’s claimed, it’s likely not ours, because it exceeds known US or adversary capabilities.
Alternative Interpretations: It could be, as Alejandro and others suggest, a target being destroyed with the missile flying past. However, this becomes a complex kinematics problem with multiple moving parts and forces that would be extremely difficult to achieve logistically and nearly impossible to assess without higher resolution footage and expert analysis.
Critical Knowledge Gaps: The congressional hearing lacked sufficient technical expertise for reasonable interpretation, and most public debate comes from novices. While the face-value context is enthralling, we have disappointingly little verification:
Unconfirmed location, missile type, and aircraft details
Those familiar with Red Sea operations at that time hadn’t heard of this incident until now
Timing coincides with active Navy engagement against Yemen missiles/drones
Operational Concerns: If this were “ours,” we wouldn’t fly it near carrier Marshall stacks due to safety of flight issues - similar speculation surrounded the Tic-Tac incident. We don’t test our own systems in live-fire scenarios like this.
Bottom Line: If authentic as presented, it’s unsettling that anyone possesses technology capable of surviving a direct Hellfire strike. However, it’s equally possible this depicts an advanced systems test from a different time/location than alleged.
What We Need:
Solid verification of video origin
Thorough kinematics analysis of all objects
Accompanying radar and flight data
Expert technical assessment
Thoughts on additional verification methods or similar reported incidents?